Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management — Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin |
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Authors: | DN Barton T Saloranta HO Eggestad |
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Institution: | a Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Gaustadalléen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway b Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research (Bioforsk), Fr. A. Dahlsvei 20, NO-1432 Ås, Norway c FEM Group, University of Helsinki, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 56, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland |
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Abstract: | A Bayesian network approach is used to conduct decision analysis of nutrient abatement measures in the Morsa catchment, South Eastern Norway. The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management (IRBM) for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing cost-effectiveness studies, eutrophication models and data, non-market valuation studies and expert opinion. The Bayesian belief network is used to evaluate eutrophication mitigation costs relative to benefits, as part of the economic analysis under the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). Pros and cons of Bayesian networks as reported in the literature are reviewed in light of the results from our Morsa catchment model. The reported advantages of Bayesian networks in promoting integrated, inter-disciplinary evaluation of uncertainty in IRBM, as well as the apparent advantages for risk communication with stakeholders, are offset in our case by the cost of obtaining reliable probabilistic data and meta-model validation procedures. |
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Keywords: | Decision analysis Influence diagrams Bayesian networks Benefit-cost analysis Eutrophication Uncertainty Water Framework Directive |
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