未来十年我国天然气利用趋势探讨

近年来,我国天然气消费结构逐渐由以化工为主向多元结构转变,天然气利用结构不断优化,表现为城市燃气稳定增长、发电用气占比大幅提高。技术、政策、经济性是未来影响我国天然气利用方向的主要因素。受天然气利用政策调整、资源保障程度提高、能源价格上升等因素的影响,我国天然气的发展将呈现三大趋势——城市气化、以气代油及天然气发电。未来10年我国天然气的利用方向将保持这些趋势,特别是发电将成为我国天然气需求增长潜力最大的领域之一,从而使我国天然气消费结构呈现城市燃气、天然气发电和工业燃料三足鼎立之势。

Next 10-year natural gas usage trend in China

In recent years the natural gas consumption mix in China has diversified away from chemical dominance.The gas consumption mix is continually adjusting and marked by steady growth in city fuel gas and considerable increase in gas used for power generation.Technology,policy and the economy are the main factors driving the gas usage trend in China.Driven by adjustment in gas usage policy,higher assurance of resource availability,ability of energy prices to rise,etc.,the development of gas in China will ultimately be driven by three trends:growing use of gas in cities,replacement of oil by gas,and electric power generation fueled by natural gas.Such a trend will extend at least over 10 years;in particular,electric power generation will be a big potential driver of gas demand growth in China.