地方政府性债务风险预警研究——基于东北地区某市的经验数据

2013年我国地方政府性债务进入偿还高峰期。受到经济下行压力和地方财政收入增速下滑的不利影响,地方政府性债务风险增大。如何科学地监测地方债务风险,准确地评定地方政府债务风险等级,在地方政府债务危机发生前及时发出预警已成为当前地方财政研究的重要课题。论文采用模糊综合判断法和层次分析法构建债务预警模型,对地方政府性债务风险进行整体量化。选取东北地区某市2009-2011年的样本数据,通过设计针对借债、用债和偿债三个环节的风险预警指标体系,对该市地方政府性债务风险预警系统的可操作性进行实证分析与效果验证。实证结果显示:该市政府性债务风险等级为危险,债务风险预警的综合风险系数处于轻度危险区。在此基础上,论文提出了相关的政策建议。

Early-Warning of the Debt Risk of Local Government in China: A Study Based on Empirical Data From one City in the Northeast Area

The debt repayment peak has arrived in 2013, Because of the adversely effect of the downward pressure on economic and local fiscal revenue growth fell, the debt repayment risk increases, How to assess the risk level of local government debt accurately and how to send the early warning signal in time before the outbreak of debt crisis has become an important research subject for local governments, This paper uses the AHP( Analytic Hierarchy Process) and fuzzy comprehensive judgment method to establish the local government debt risk early warning system, Then this paper collects the financial data of one city in the northeast area and validates of the model results The results show the level of local government debt risk of the city and provide a reference for authority to enact policies of preventing and resolving local government debts risk.