外汇储备剧增导致的货币政策困境

外汇储备是体现和制约货币政策有效性的重要因素。根据“三元悖论”,中国政府为确保汇率稳定,同时实现资本准自由流动,必定要以牺牲货币政策独立性为代价。外汇储备超常增长、大量外汇占款导致央行货币政策的实施陷入被动和效果趋弱的困境,给宏观调控政策的选择提出更加复杂的难题。基于此现状,本文对该困境形成的原因和不利影响加以分析,尝试寻求解决办法。

Dilemma of Monetary Policy Resulted from China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Increment

China's foreign exchange reserves have become the significant factor of restricting the validity of monetary policy.The paper analyzed the paradox of fixed foreign exchange rate,capital flow and monetary policy discretion in China's economy and the impact of foreign exchange reserves on the implementation of monetary policy.It proposed that in order to improve the independence and flexibility of monetary policy,China should reform current exchange control system,enhance the open market operation and facilitate the equilibrium of the balance of payments.