Floating exchange rates,expectations and new information |
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| Authors: | Sebastian Edwards |
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| Institution: | University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA;N.B.E.R., Cambridge, MA 02138, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates, future spot rates and new information. A stochastic model of exchange rate determination is used to formally show how unanticipated changes in the exchange rate determinants (or ‘news’) affect the spot rate. The empirical analysis indicates that ‘new information’ plays an important role in explaining the market forecasting error, or difference between the spot rate and the forward rate, determined in the previous period. |
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