(1) Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, CALTECH, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA;(2) Economics Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Abstract:
We study costly majority voting when voters rationally anticipate others have similar preferences. The correlation in preferences
lowers expected turnout because votes have a positive externality on those who abstain. We study the effects of the public
release of information (polls) on participation levels. Polls raise expected turnout but reduce expected welfare because they
stimulate the “wrong” group to participate resulting in a “toss-up” election. Our novel results highlight the adverse effects
of providing information about the electorate’s preferences and may explain why some countries bar opinion polls close to
an election date.