生计资本对牧户生计策略的影响分析

基于喀拉峻旅游区入户调研数据,应用多项Logistic回归模型,探究生计资本对牧户生计策略选择的影响机制。结果显示:喀拉峻旅游区牧户生计资本总量较低,各区域生计资本分布不均;生计资本及其指标是影响牧户选择生计策略的关键因素,也是实现可持续生计须关注的重点内容。因此建议:开展并鼓励牧民参加技能培训活动;合理实施"禁牧限牧"政策,及时调整放牧区与休牧区范围;搭建生产资料买卖"桥梁",提高旅游接待水平;拓宽融资渠道,规范草场租用协议,鼓励规模化养殖;建立健全村干部选举制度,发挥村民代表带头示范作用。

Analysis of the Impact of Livelihood Capital on Livestock Livelihood Strategy

⑴ Background——Implementing the rural revitalization strategy is an important measure to create a beautiful Xinjiang.The Kalajun tourist area is facing the contradiction between the livelihood transformation of the herdsmen and the ecological environment protection.⑵ Methods——In 2016 and 2017,85,40,39 and 36 households were randomly selected in the towns of Keradala Town,Turks Racecourse,Chorac Tekec Town and Kuk Tikhek Township,Using the participatory assessment method,190 valid questionnaires were obtained.The herdsmen's livelihood strategy choices include animal husbandry production,migrant workers,tourism,and tourism and animal husbandry.Therefore,the multi-class multivariate logistic model is used for regression analysis.⑶ Results——Compared with the choice of "livestock production" livelihood strategies, when other explanatory variables are unchanged,each unit of physical capital is increased, and the herdsmen choose.The incidence of migrant workers will be reduced by 3.84×10~(-9) times.In particular,the past husbandry's existing production materials severely restrict the herdsmen from going out to work.When each unit of financial capital and social capital is added,the herdsmen choose to go out to work.The rate will increase by 737.358,7.78×10~(11) times respectively.Compared with the choice of "livestock production"livelihood strategy,when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, natural capital increases by one unit,and herders choose to operate tourism.The incidence will be reduced by 4.88×10~(-6) times.Financial capital has a significant positive impact on the management of tourism.When other explanatory variables remain unchanged,the financial capital increases by one unit,and the incidence of herdsmen choosing to operate tourism will increase by 1.24×10~5 times.It shows that the more funds the herdsmen manage to transfer,the more they are willing to engage in tourism operations.Compared with the choice of "livestock production" livelihood strategy,when other explanatory variables When the market remains unchanged,the financial capital will increase by one unit, and the incidence of herdsmen choosing tourism and animal husbandry will increase by 7.20×10~3 times.Natural capital,the number of participation in project training,and production materials are key indicators that positively influence the choice of tourism and animal husbandry and livelihood strategies.When the unit area is increased by one unit,the incidence of herdsmen's choice of tourism will be reduced by 0.015 times.The larger the felt area,and it is harder for herders to achieve livelihood transformation.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The pastoral households in the Kalajun tourist area have a low total amount of livelihood capital,and the distribution of livelihood capital in each region is uneven, and there are differences in the choice of livelihood strategies.Therefore,it is recommended to:Develop and encourage herders to participate in professional skills training activities;rationally implement the "grazing ban and animal husbandry"policy,and timely adjust the scope of grazing areas and restoration areas, maintain the dynamic balance of the grassland ecosystem;set up production materials to buy and sell bridges to meet their needs;transform the characteristic felt houses to improve the level of tourists' reception;broaden financing channels to solve the problem of pastoral financing;allow grassland rental,encourage Large-scale operation;establish and improve the election system for village cadres,and give play to the role of village representatives.