黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构演变趋势及优势产业选择

采用灰色预测方法对黑龙江森工林区2018—2027年林业三次产业产值进行预测,并在此基础上利用动态偏离-份额分析方法对此阶段黑龙江森工林区的林业优势产业进行选择。结果表明:2019年黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构将演变为"三、一、二"模式;林业第一产业中的林木育种和育苗、经济林产品的种植和采集业可作为优势产业进行重点发展和管理。因此,提出优化黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构的相关建议:继续巩固发展林木育种和育苗、经济林产品的种植和采集这两个优势产业;推动加工制造业向深加工、精加工的方向转变;加强林业旅游与休闲服务业的竞争力。

Analysis on the Evolution Trend of Forestry Industrial Structure and the Selection of Advantageous Industries in Heilongjiang Forest Industry Region

⑴ Background——The implementation of the natural forest protection project and the policy of logging ban has gotten the forest region dominated by the timber economy into trouble.Adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure has become an extremely urgent matter.⑵ Methods——Based on the grey forecast model,the paper forecasts the output value of forestry three industries and secondary industries,and obtains the evolution trend of forestry industrial structure.Based on the shift share analysis method,the change of the output value of forestry industry is decomposed into the industrial structure deviation component and the competitiveness deviation component.According to the calculation results,superior industries are selected.⑶ Results——The output value prediction equation of forestry tree industries and its secondary industries is obtained.The chart of change trend of forestry industrial structure in Heilongjiang Forest-industry Region is drawn,which conforms to the evolution law of industrial structure.The evolution of forestry industrial structure can be divided into four stages.The first stage(2003-2008)is the "One-Two-Three" mode.The proportion of the primary industry is significantly higher than that of the secondary industry,and the proportion of the tertiary industry is lower.The second stage(2009-2010) is the "Two-One-Three" mode.The third stage(2011-2015)is the "One-Two-Three" mode.The fourth stage(2016-2017)is the "One-Three-Two" mode.It is predicted that the forestry industrial structure in 2008 will still be the "One-Three-Two" mode,and the forestry industrial structure will evolve in 2019.The primary industry of forestry in Heilongjiang Province has a stronger competitive advantage compared with the national average.Forest breeding,seedling raising and the cultivation and collection of economic forest products have obvious comprehensive advantages.The abundant natural resources in the state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang Province also improve the competitiveness of the primary industry.Influenced by the policy,the overall competitiveness of secondary industries in the second industry is relatively low and only the processing and manufacturing industry of non-wood forest products has advantages in industrial structure.In this case,it will promote the deep processing of wood forest products and increase their added value.In addition,the processing and manufacturing industry of non-wood forest products is in the early stage of investment and technological innovation.It is necessary to increase investment to promote its development and enhance industrial competitiveness.The forestry tourism and leisure service industry is a fast-growing industry with a rational industrial structure but lacks competitiveness.The reason is that there are still some problems in Heilongjiang forestry tourism and leisure service industry,such as convergence of tourism products,backward infrastructure,and difficulties in investment and financing.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——In 2019,the forestry industrial structure of Heilongjiang Forest-Industry Region will evolve into the "Three-One-Two" mode.Forest breeding,seedling raising and the cultivation and collection of economic forest products are competitive industries,which can be prioritized for development and management.Therefore,three suggestions are put forward: consolidating and developing competitive industries; promoting the transformation of processing and manufacturing industries into deep processing and fine machining; strengthening the competitiveness of forestry tourism and leisure service industries.