股票市场财富效应论争及原因探析

股市财富效应存在较大争议。一些学者肯定股市波动与收入、消费等变量的正相关性,财富效应存在。一些学者从家庭财富的多元性与股市波动的不确定性等入手,通过市场调查与实证检验等方法,对财富效应持怀疑态度。本文认为,二者争议的原因在于:一是股市财富效应传导渠道的多样性与复杂性,增加了定量研究的难度;二是财富效应本身的非对称性与时滞性,在一定程度上使得研究结果出现偏差;三是财富效应的大小难以准确估量;四是股票市场价格波动与消费者信心波动的不确定性与随机性。整体上,不承认财富效应不可取,但过分夸大财富效应显然也是不对的。

Wealth Effect in Stock Market: the Controversies and the Causes

There is great disputation about the existence and the extent of the wealth effect in stock market.Some scholars who argue for the wealth effect in stock market think there is positive correlationship between stock market,income and consumption.While others who doubt the wealth effect in stock market find the diversification of household wealth and uncertainty of stock market through market survey and empirical tests.Therefore,the causes of disputation are as follows: First,the diversification and complexity of transmission channels of the wealth effect bring difficulties to the quantitative studies.Second,the asymmetry and time-lag of wealth effect make the study results inexact.Third,the size of wealth effect is difficult to evaluate.Fourth,there exist the uncertainty and randomness of the customers' confidence as well as the price fluctuation in stock market.Therefore,both denying it and exaggerating it are not correct.