技术的时空扩散研究:以GIS在中国教育科研机构的扩散为例

新技术的扩散总是涉及到时间和空间两个尺度,相当一部分技术扩散研究只研究时间这一尺度。相比而言,空间的扩散过程及机理的研究就困难得多,这不仅因为数据难以获得,而且因为在空间尺度上影响扩散的因素也相当复杂。文章利用文献计量方法获得有关GIS技术在中国教育科研机构的基本数据,为技术的时空扩散研究提供了难得的数据资源。该数据的特点在于同时具有时间和空间两维尺度。数据表明,无论是在时间还是在空间尺度上,技术的扩散都表现为经典的S型增长路径。在数据的基础上分析了影响GIS扩散的主要因素,包括地区文化教育和科研状况、地区经济发展以及地区信息与网络状况等。在此基础上,利用主体模型对时空扩散过程加以模拟,模拟的结果比较令人满意,表明对于影响因素的分析是可靠的。

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY: AN EXAMPLE OF GIS DIFFUSION IN SECTOR OF COLLEGES AND INSTITUTIONS IN CHINA

The diffusion of a new technology usually involves two dimensions: time and space.Much of the studies in this field focus on temporal diffusion.Compared with temporal diffusion,study on the process and mechanism of spatial diffusion seems rather difficult.The reasons are unavailability of data and complexity of influential factors in terms of spatial diffusion.This paper provides data on GIS diffusion in sector of colleges and institutions in China by means of bibiliometrics.The characteristic of this data is that it has both temporal and spatial dimensions.The data shows that,both temporally and spatially,the diffusion of technology turns take on the typical S curve.On base of data analysis, this paper study on the main factors that affect GIS diffusion in China,including regional culture,education and scientific research;regional economic growth as well as regional information and internet status.Then,the authors simulate the diffusion using agent-based model.The outcomes of the simulation are rather satisfactory,indicating the analysis on factors that affect GIS diffusion in China is reasonable.