基于投入产出模型的陕西省虚拟水分析

虚拟水理论和虚拟水贸易是水资源管理的一个重要途径,其中虚拟水贸易量的估算是难点。采用投入产出法对陕西省的直接耗水强度系数、完全耗水强度系数、耗水乘数、产业间的水转移系数及虚拟水贸易及消费量进行了估算。结果表明:陕西省农业是耗水强度最大,但绝大部分是在农业生产环节直接耗水;工业、建筑业及服务业直接耗水较小,绝大部分是间接耗水,尤以服务业较大。而虚拟水贸易评价结果表明陕西省是虚拟水的净输出省,但是面临严峻的水资源短缺问题。建议陕西省强化虚拟水管理,通过产业结构、消费结构和贸易结构的调整来减少本地水资源消耗,实现水资源和社会经济协调发展。

Analysis of virtual water in Shanxi Province based on input-output model

The theory and trade of virtual water is an important field of water resources management.It is difficult to calculate the amount of virtual water consumption.The input-output(IO) model is employed to calculate the direct water consumption intensity,total water consumption intensity,water consumption multiplier,inter-sector water transaction coefficient,trade and consumption of virtual water in Shanxi Province.The results indicate that the agriculture sector is the water consumer with the largest intensity,and most of the water consumption is the direct one in agricultural production.The industrial,construction and service sectors exhibit lower direct water consumption but higher indirect one,especially the service sector.The assessment of virtual water trade shows that although it encounters severe water shortage,Shanxi Province is a net virtual water exporter.Some suggestions are proposed that Shanxi Province should enhance virtual water management,and the local water consumption should be reduced by readjusting the structure of production,consumption and trade so as to realize the sustainable development of water resources and social economy.