总供给冲击、总需求冲击与我国经济波动关系的实证研究

本文利用1994年1季度至2012年2季度产出和价格的季度数据,建立了基于长期约束的SVAR模型,用以分析总供给冲击和总需求冲击对我国经济波动的影响,考察经济增长和价格对总供给冲击和总需求冲击的动态响应。实证研究表明,总供给冲击和总需求冲击标准差均较大,而且总需求冲击波动性要大于总供给冲击的波动性,说明我国经济在样本数据期内存在波动性。脉冲响应分析发现,总供给冲击对于产出具有正向长期趋势,而总需求冲击对于产出具有正向短期影响;对于价格而言,总供给冲击对价格产生负向长期影响,而总需求冲击对价格产生正向长期影响。2011年以来我国经济增速持续放缓,主要在于供求冲击为负,供给负冲击更为显著。

An Empirical Study on Aggregate Supply Shocks, Aggregate Demand Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in China

This paper builds up AD-AS model based on BQ long run constraint using output and price quarterly data from the 1 quarter of 1994 to the 2 quarter of 2012, in order to analyze the effect of supply and demand shocks on Chinese economic fluctuations, and check the impulse response of economic growth and price to supply and demand shocks. The em- pirical study finds that the aggregate supply and aggregate demand＇s standard deviation is large, and the aggregate demand shock＇s standard deviation is larger, which shows there exists economy fluctuation in the sample period. Impulse response analysis shows that, supply shocks have positive permanent effects on output, and aggregate demand shocks have positive short effects on output. For the price, supply shocks have negative permanent effects and demand shocks have positive permanent effects. Since 2011, China＇s economic growth continues to slow, mainly because of negative supply and demand shocks; what＇s more the negative impact of the supply shock is more significant.