美国国际收支结构的特征、趋势分析及对中国的启示

美国日益增长的经常项目赤字和庞大的净对外债务已经成为影响世界经济的一个不确定因素。长期来看,以亚洲国家为外围主体为美国经常项目赤字融资这一复活的布雷顿森林体系难以长久存在,因而以“逆差+顺差”为特点的美国国际收支结构是很难持续的,美国的经常项目很可能会经历一次趋向平衡的调整过程。同时指出了中国对美国经常项目调整可能给中国经济发展带来冲击的应对措施。

On the Balance of Payments Structure in the US: Characteristics and Tendency

The increasing current account deficit and net foreign liabilities in the US have been an uncertainty for the world economy. In my opinion, the balance of payment structure with the characteristics of"deficit+surplus"in the US is very hard sustain for a long time because of the collapse of the revived Bretton Woods system which is surrounded by the periphery of Asian nations. The US could make an adjustment to balance the current account, which may bring great impacts on China's economic development. What actions should China take to face these impacts? Detailed analysis is made in this paper.