农地确权、金融可得性与农户家庭贫困脆弱性

本文基于2013年和2015年中国家庭金融调查数据，应用双重差分方法考察新一轮农地确权对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的直接影响，结合中介效应模型和三重差分模型检验农地确权影响家庭贫困脆弱性的中介机制和调节机制。研究结果表明，农地确权能够降低农户家庭未来陷入贫困或持续贫困的概率，其间接路径是通过促进农户从事非农就业降低家庭贫困脆弱性。金融可得性在农地确权影响农户家庭贫困脆弱性中起到调节效应，金融可得性越高，农地确权降低贫困脆弱性的作用越大。对处于不同贫困脆弱状态的农户家庭而言，农地确权降低贫困脆弱性的作用存在差异。上述结论对通过土地产权制度改革推进持续巩固脱贫攻坚成果和相对贫困治理工作意义重大，并为评估新一轮农地确权政策提供了新思路。

Rural Land Rights Confirmation, Financial Availability, and Poverty Vulnerability of Rural Households

Based on the China Household Finance Survey data in 2013 and 2015, this paper applies the difference-in-difference (DID) method to investigate the direct impact of the new round of rural land rights confirmation on the poverty vulnerability of rural households, and combines the mediation effect model and the triple difference model to test the mediating and moderating mechanisms of the impact of the confirmation on the poverty vulnerability. The results show that the confirmation can reduce the probability of rural households falling into poverty or persistent poverty in the future, which can also indirectly reduce the poverty vulnerability by promoting rural households to engage in non-agricultural employment. Moreover, financial availability plays a moderating role in the impact of the confirmation on the poverty vulnerability, and the higher the financial availability, the greater the impact of the confirmation on reducing the poverty vulnerability. Besides, for rural households in different poverty vulnerabilities, the role of the confirmation in reducing poverty vulnerability is different. The above conclusions are of great significance to the continuous consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and relative poverty governance through the reform of the land property rights system, and may provide new ideas for evaluating a new round of rural land rights confirmation policies.