土地供应规则的变化对北京市住宅用地市场的影响

研究目的:以2004年8月31日和2005年5月1日为界,将北京市住宅用地市场分为三个阶段,从土地供应量、地价、竞租曲线、土地—资本替代弹性等方面分析土地供应规则的变化对住宅用地招拍挂出让市场的影响。研究方法:定性分析,土地竞租曲线和土地—资本替代弹性分析。研究结论:(1)经营性项目用地招拍挂供应的政策对住宅用地市场的影响胜于“熟地”供应政策;(2)土地竞租曲线的变化反映土地市场在经过较大波动之后正在适应新的土地供应规则;(3)土地—资本替代弹性分析显示北京市住宅用地的市场效率仍然偏低。

Response of Residential Land Market to the Reform of Land Supply Policy in Beijing

The purpose of this paper is to study the response of land supply rules change to residential land market through bid,auction and bulletin,based on the analysis of variations of residential land supply,residential land price,land rent gradient and land-capital substitution elasticity around two key time points(August 31st,2004 and May 1st,2005) in Beijing.Methods of land rent gradient and land-capital substitution elasticity were employed.The conclusions are as follows:(1) the policy of project land supply for business purposes by bid,auction and bulletin exerts more influence on residential land market than the policy of well-prepared land supply;(2)the variation of land rent gradient indicates that the residential land market is gradually adjusting to new rule of land supply after big fluctuation;(3) the land-capital substitution elasticity indicate the efficiency of residential land market is low now.