旅游地适应性循环模型修正及实证研究——以大别山区金寨县为例

适应性循环是社会-生态系统经历开发、保护、释放、更新的过程,可表征社会-生态系统发展趋势。文章基于旅游地恢复力、潜力以及连通度三要素,指出Holling和Tsao适应性循环模型的局限性,对其病态陷阱进行完善,并提出阶段判定的量化指标,揭示阶段转化的主导因素。根据修正后的理论模型,以旅游地社会-生态系统较为敏感的贫困山区金寨县为例,运用综合指数法对2010—2017年间的恢复力、潜力以及连通度进行定量分析,判断和预测旅游地适应性循环阶段及转化趋势,验证修正后的理论模型。结果表明:金寨县目前处于贫困陷阱,根据当前转化条件,未来将趋向于赌博陷阱;受政策的影响也可能进入开发阶段或保护阶段,若发展过程中避免陷阱可能带来的资源浪费,适应性循环将呈良性运行。

A Modification and Empirical Study on the Adaptive Cycle Model of Tourism Destinations:A Case Study on Jinzhai County

Sustainable development has become the current focus of today’s society.The adaptive cycle theory is used to study the socio-ecological system of tourism destinations,and provides a new perspective on the tourism’s sustainable development.Besides,as a process in which the socioecological system undergoes exploitation(r),conservation(K),release(Ω)and reorganization(α),the adaptive cycle can also represent the development trend of the socio-ecological systems.Based on the three factors(resilience,potential,and connectedness)of tourism destination,the article points out the limitations of the adaptive cycle model put forward by Holling and Tsao,and further improves the model from three aspects:(1)improve its morbid trap,with the addition of the gambling trap on the basis of three traps(poverty,rigidity and lock-in trap);(2)On the basis of the qualitative judgment stage,the quantitative indicators of the disclosure stage judgment are revealed as follows:0 to 0.5 is a lower development level,and 0.5 to 1 is a higher development level;(3)Because of the distinctive development characteristics of each stage,the leading factors of transformation are also different,making the clarification of each transformation stage and the leading factors of transformation necessary for future researches.According to the revised theoretical model,with Jinzhai county in Ta-pieh Mountains as a case,where the socio-ecological system of the tourism area is more sensitive.The comprehensive index method is used to quantitatively analyze the resilience,potential,and connectedness between 2010 and 2017.It can determine Jinzhai county tourism's adaptive cycle stages and forecast the future trends of phase transformation to verify the scientificity of the revised theoretical model.The socio-ecological system is a complex adaptive system in which people and nature are closely connected;however,even minor disturbances may cause large changes in the system,which leads to the continuous uncertainty of control over the socio-ecological system,along with the difficulty in predicting the development of tourism destination.What has been shown in the results are as follows:(1)The resilience,potential and connectedness of Jinzhai county have been developing rapidly in the past 8 years,but the three factors which have been in the 0~0.5 range reveal its current poverty stage;(2)No matter whether the tourism socio-ecological system experiences internal crisis or external disturbance during the development process,the system may directly transform from one state to another.Therefore,the following predictions are based on the assumption that any of the three factors change.Firstly,if it is not disturbed by a greater interference in the future,the development trend of the tourism destination will be consistent with the past 8 years.According to quantitative analysis of the indicators,the tourism destinations are likely to fall into the gambling trap;moreover,tourism destinations are national key ecological functional areas.According to the quantitative analysis of the indicators,it may enter into the exploitation with the probable interference by ecological factors in the future.Finally,the transportation support from the local government probably makes tourism destinations interfered by transportation factors in the future.According to the quantitative analysis of the indicators,these factors may likely put the tourism destinations into conservation.