农村养老保险适度水平的微观测度与动态调整研究

本文以新型农村社会养老保险制度试点为宏观背景，对农村养老保险适度水平进行了测算。对养老保险适度水平理论进行了创新，提出了农村养老保险适度水平微观测度方法：以修正恩格尔系数为基础测度农村养老保险适度水平下限；以扩展性线性支出修正模型为基础测度农村养老保险适度水平上限。同时分别依据农村居民总支出和可支配收入、农村恩格尔系数及物价指数的历史变动趋势，预测了2010—2020年农村养老保险动态适度水平的上下限；提出了近期农村养老保险适度水平上下限的标准值，并对当前新农保的普惠制给付进行了评价。

A Study on Rural Endowment Insurance Moderate Level Micro- Measurement and Dynamic Adjustment

This paper measures the rural endowment insurance level in the scheme of new rural social endowment insurance system. Pioneers the endowment insurance moderate level theory, suggests the micro- measurement method, measures the lower limit of rural endowment insurance moderate level based on the adjusted Engel~ Coefficient, and also measures the upper limit based on the adjusted ELES. This paper also forecasts the lower and upper limit of 2010 -2020 dynamic level based on rural family total expenditure and disposable income, rural Engel＇s Coefficient and price index; puts forward the standard value of rural endowment insurance level, and at last, appraises the Generalized System of Preferences of the new rural social endowment insurance system.