Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update |
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Authors: | Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel |
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Affiliation: | aHaas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1900, USA;bFRB San Francisco, 101 Market St., San Francisco, CA 94105, USA |
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Abstract: | We update [13] and [Rose and Spiegel, 2010] and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the “Great Recession” of 2008–09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns. |
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Keywords: | JEL classification: E65 F30 |
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