中国通货膨胀驱动机制的货币主义新范式

现阶段中国的通货膨胀多被认为是结构型或者成本推动型通货膨胀。然而，本文的研究表明，二十世纪九十年代中后期以来货币扩张背景下的房地产价格上涨是通货膨胀的根本性驱动因素。本文分析框架基于莫尔兹（Meltzer）新货币主义学派的资产市场均衡理论，并结合存在供给与需求双向结构性失衡的拓展AS AD模型。本文认为，非市场化的利率决定机制与长期利率管制是我国货币扩张通过房地产价格向总体通货膨胀传导的金融制度基础。从通货膨胀治理的制度性安排来看，突破以需求管理为主导的现有模式，把供给与需求的均衡管理作为基础是当前更值得考虑的制度性抉择。

THE MECHANISM OF INFLATION PROCESS IN CHINA:A NEW MONETARISM APPROACH

Inflation in China was mainly attributed to structural factors or cost-push type factors. However,this paper showed that monetary expansion and high housing price were fundamental driving factors of inflation in China since the mid-1990s. This paper applied Meltzer's new monetarism framework in conjunction with an extended AS-AD model with structural imbalances in both supply and demand sides. This paper proposed that the non-market interest rate system was the financial institutional foundation for the housing-price-driven inflation in China. From the perspective of institutional arrangement,policy-makers should put more weight on balancing supply and demand of the economy,instead of focusing on demand management.