制造业出口高质量升级的内源动力：人力资本的结构演进视角

人力资本作为一种高质量型创新要素，对制造业出口高质量升级发挥着内源动力作用。基于人力资本的结构性问题和动态演进特性，建立一个理论模型论证人力资本结构由低级向高级的动态演进对出口产品技术含量的提升作用，利用2002—2017年面板数据进行实证考察。结果表明：第一，在考虑了人力资本的结构性和动态演进性之后，人力资本的结构演进对制造业出口高质量升级的促进作用更大，是人力资本存量的2倍之余。在一系列稳健性检验之后依然成立；第二，人力资本的结构演进更有利于东部地区制造业出口高质量升级；第三，门槛效应检验表明，当经济发展达到一定水平、市场竞争达到一定程度后，人力资本的结构演进对制造业出口高质量升级才会发挥更大的促进作用。

Endogenous Motive Force of High-quality Upgrading of Manufacturing Exports: Perspective of Structural Evolution of Human Capital

How to maximize the role of human capital in promoting the upgrading of manufacturing exports, and under what conditions its promotion can maximize its effects, is an important issue in the high-quality development of the new era. Based on the structural and dynamic evolution characteristics of human capital, this paper examines the impact of the evolution of human capital structure on the export upgrade of manufacturing. Firstly, a theoretical model is established to demonstrate that the dynamic evolution of human capital structure from low to high can achieve the role of promoting the technical content of export products. Then, use the 2005-2015 provincial panel data to empirical research. The empirical results show that: Firstly, the dynamic evolution of human capital structure from low to high significantly promotes the export upgrade of manufacturing. This conclusion is still robust considering the measurement error, periodic shock, missing variable bias and endogeneity. Secondly, compared with the human capital stock, the human capital structure with structural problems and dynamic evolution characteristics is more advanced. Conducive to promoting the export upgrade of manufacturing industry, the estimated coefficient is more than twice the estimated coefficient of human capital stock. This conclusion is more prominent under the instrumental variable. Thirdly, the spatial heterogeneity test results show that the promotion of export upgrading is significant in the eastern region, not significant in the central and western regions, and the estimation of instrumental variables remains the same. Finally, from the perspective of economic development effects and market competition effects, this paper researches the nonlinear threshold effect of the upgrading of human capital structure on the export of manufacturing industries. Only when the economic development reaches a certain level and the market competition reaches a certain level, the advanced human capital structure will play a significant role in promoting the export upgrade of the manufacturing industry. Based on these conclusions, this paper believes that human capital which considers structural and dynamic evolution characteristics can better promote the export upgrade of manufacturing industries. And at the same time, the promotion of human capital will be the biggest when economic development and market competition reach a certain point.