城镇劳动力市场雇佣关系的演化及影响因素

本文利用跨度为二十年(1988年到2007年)的微观家计数据,分析了我国城镇地区雇佣关系在经济转型时期从单一固定工向多元灵活雇佣关系转变的过程。将我国城镇地区的雇佣关系分成四种类型,探讨了雇佣关系构成从1988年到2007年的变化及其影响因素,以及各种因素的相对重要性。分析发现,从1988年开始,我国的雇佣关系构成中灵活雇佣比重开始逐步上升,到2002年,短期雇佣、无合同雇佣等灵活雇佣形式的比重达到一个较高水平,进入2007年,稳定雇佣关系的比重略有回升。扩展的Oaxaca-Blinder分解所得结果表明,从1995年到2002年,劳动力市场灵活性增强主要受到转型过程中制度变迁等不可观测因素的影响;进入2007年,稳定的雇佣关系比重略有回升,放松管制和市场深化的效应逐渐释放殆尽,特征变量对提高雇佣稳定性的作用开始显现。

Evolution of Employment Relations in Urban China

Using household survey data covering 20-year period from 1988 to 2007,this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of employment relations in urban China,and investigates the changes of composition of labor contract types,the factors contributing to the composition changes,and the relative importance of these factors.The analysis shows that the proportion of flexible employment increased since 1988,reached a very high level in 2002,and decreased somewhat after 2007.Extended Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that the rise of flexible employment is mainly resulted from deregulation and marketization of urban labor market in China.But entering 2007,the importance of deregulation and marketization has diminished.The endowments of workers have been becoming more important to obtain a stable employment.