A Sequential Rationality Test of USDA Preliminary Price Estimates for Selected Program Crops: Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat |
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| Authors: | Sung Chul No Michael E Salassi |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business, Southern University and A&M College, 228 T.T. Allain Hall, Baton Rouge, LA 70813, USA;(2) Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA |
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| Abstract: | Despite recurrent evaluations on USDA price forecasts, the performance of USDA price estimates has not previously been examined
in publication. To fill the void in research to this important public information, a sequential forecast evaluation procedure
is applied to selected USDA price estimates: Rice, soybeans, and wheat. The evaluation procedure reveals that the USDA price
estimates are short-run unbiased; however, they are not long-run rational. In addition, short-run optimality and efficiency
tests suggest that USDA price estimates need to be properly scaled and fully reflect information embodied in past prices and
their estimates — a possible venue to improve the predictability of USDA price estimates for the crops. |
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