中国经济周期波动的福利成本研究——基于小概率“严重衰退”事件的视角

本文在Lucas模型基础上,引入存在严重衰退状态的消费增长过程,重新估算中国经济周期的福利成本,修正了Lucas论断。通过本文模型的计算,我们得出:(1)应用存在严重衰退状态的福利成本模型估算的中国经济波动的福利成本远远高于Lucas模型估算的结果。在合理的参数范围内,前者一般是后者的10倍左右。因此,对于中国经济而言,旨在防止严重衰退状态发生的宏观稳定政策的福利收益相当大。(2)对于中国经济而言,降低严重衰退状态发生的概率(从0.017降低到0.003)所获得的福利收益大约是Lucas模型结果的3～4倍。这表明,中国宏观稳定政策的收益主要来源于降低严重衰退状态的发生概率,而不是减少通常意义上的经济波动。(3)在相对风险规避系数取值范围内(γ小于6),中国经济波动的福利成本与美国经济波动的福利成本相当接近。这从某种程度上说明了存在严重衰退状态的福利成本模型适用于不同的经济体。

On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycle in China:An Alternative Perspective

This paper reconsiders the welfare costs of China's business cycles in an economy with a low probability,serious recessionstate in consumption growth.By applying of the new model to China's economy,we have come to:(1)The welfare costs of economic fluctuations are much higher than the results estimated by Lucas's model.Under reasonable parameters,the former may generally be about 10 times the latter.Hence,as far as the Chinese economy is concerned,the welfare gains of macro-stabilization policies aimed at pr...