基于“巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应”的人民币汇率合理性评价

2006年5月15日美元对人民币汇率的中间价首次"破8,"2007年7月3日,中间价报1美元对人民币7.5951元,将7.6元的重要心理关口也顺利突破。由此,关于人民币汇率合理性的评价问题再次引发人们的关注。人民币汇率合理性的评价,关键在于确定作为评价依据的人民币均衡汇率,"巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应"理论在人民币均衡汇率的确定中,具有重要的指导作用。通过"巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应"模型的构建与运用,可以测算出人民币均衡汇率,并可据此对人民币汇率的合理性进行评价。实证分析结果表明,人民币汇率升值,是符合汇率决定规律的。

Rationality Assessment of RMB's Exchange Rate Based on "Balassa-Samuelson Effect"

On May 15,2006 the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar is lower than 8:1 for the first time.On July 3,2007,the middle price of the exchange rate reached 7.5951,below 7.6-another important psychological barrier.Since then the rationality assessment of RMB's exchange rate has once again aroused wide attention.The key is to determine the equilibrium exchange rate for RMB,which is to be used a basis for such assessment."Balassa-Samuelson effect" plays a major directive role in determining RMB's equilibrium exchange rate.The construction and application of the model for "Balassa-Samuelson effect" can help to figure out the equilibrium exchange rate,which can facilitate the rationality assessment of RMB's exchange rate.The empirical analysis shows that the appreciation of RMB conforms to the rule of determination of exchange rate.