基于局部网络效应的创新扩散分析

在考虑局部网络效应的基础上，采用微观扩散模型仿真分析创新扩散。研究表明，局部网络效应使得创新潜在采纳个体决策相互影响，从而导致这种采纳者之间微观交互模式所呈现的宏观社会网络结构影响创新扩散的速度和程度。即使某些创新收益非常高，也有可能因为创新潜在采纳个体之间交互模式的影响而导致其扩散最终失败。同时早期创新采纳个体一般具有社会联系比较广泛，自身采纳阈值较高，自身局部网络效应强度较小，更关注创新内在价值等创新特征。

Study on the Diffusion of Innovation:A Model Based-on Local Network Effects

By considering the local network effects of innovation, this paper use micro diffusion model and simula tion method to analysis the diffusion of innovation . The results show that the topology structure of social networks could have a deep impact on the rate, extent and pattern of innovation diffusion. Even the benefits of innovation are much high, the diffusion of innovation would still have to be failed by the reason of the interaction patterns of potential adopter. Meanwhile, the early adopters have some innovativeness characteristics, such as more connections with others, higher neighbors＇ degree, higher threshold of adoption and lower local network strength.