Of songs and men: a model for multiple choice with herding |
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Authors: | Christian Borghesi Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
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Institution: | (1) Service de Physique de l’état Condensé, Orme des Merisiers, CEA Saclay, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, 91191, France;(2) Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management, 6-8 Bd Haussmann, 75009 Paris, France |
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Abstract: | We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical
results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and
a strong imitation, ‘fashion’ phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is
strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik
et al. (Science, 311, 854–856 (2006)); we show in particular that the value of the social influence parameter can be estimated from the data.
In one of the experimental situation, this value is found to be close to the critical value of the model. |
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Keywords: | Herding Social Influence Random Field Ising Model |
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