| Abstract: | Although there are indications that the world economy is beginning to emerge from recession, the early stages of recovery are turning out to be extremely weak and industry worldwide has still not recorded any significant advance. Consequently business planners are now having to take account of the possibility that there will be no recovery during 1982 or even that the world will enter a prolonged downturn. We discuss these scenarios here and indicate why we consider them unlikely; our central forecast remains that the world economy will enter a recovery phase towards the end of 1982 and grow strongly in 1983-84. |
