Predicting the money multiplier: A case study for the U.S. and the Netherlands

A Box-Jenkins model has been developed to predict the U.S. money multiplier. The forecasts are approximately 30% more accurate than those produced by the regression methods which Burger and others have used in recent work. Similar models are then applied to three different money multipliers for the Netherlands, taken from Korteweg's reformulation of the Brunner-Meltzer money supply scheme for this open economy. The results suggest that if the Dutch Central Bank invested more resources in the collection of data from the banks, then predictions could be made sufficiently accurate for use in the control of the money stock.