基于北京私车消费系统动力学模型的城市交通发展研究

城市私车增长与交通资源内在的不平衡是城市交通发展中面临的重要问题之一.城市私车消费的持续发展与社会、经济、环境以及公交设施的发展密切相关.城市私车消费系统是一个多变量、非线性、多反馈的复杂系统.为此,论文在对系统结构和因果反馈分析的基础上建立私车消费系统的系统动力学(System Dynamics)模型,讨论公共交通尤其是快速轨道交通发展对私车发展的抑制作用,并通过私车保有量对轨道票价与建设速度的灵敏度分析为城市交通发展政策的制定提供决策依据.

A Study of Urban Transportation Based on System Dynamics Model on Private Vehicle Consumption in Beijing

The imbalance between the growth of the private vehicles and traffic resources is one of the most severe situation that the urban transportation development is facing. The consumption system of private vehicles with multiple variables and nonlinear feedback loops is closely related with society,economics,environment and public transportation. This paper proposed a system dynamics model of private vehicle consumption based on the analysis of systematic cause and effect feedback,and explored the inhibitory ef...