我国国际资本流动性程度和非流动性原因的度量与检验--来自中美日三国消费模式对比的经验证据

加入WTO以后,我国的国际资本流动性开始有所加强,流动方式也有所改变。文章选择中国、美国和日本的消费和收入数据,在国家之间实际利率均衡的假设下,通过国家消费模式的考察和对比,发现我国的经济运行并不满足国际资本完全流动性假说,其原因既出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场之间存在进入限制,也出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场的非完全整合。这些经验发现表明,我国经济中的名义利率、汇率和资本市场仍然处于有限管制过程中,必须通过深化国内金融体制改革和逐步实现资本市场开放等有力措施来增强我国国际资本的流动性,进而保持我国快速经济增长和提高整体资源配置效率。

The Measurement and Test for China''''s Capital Flows : Evidence from Comparisons of Consumption Patters in US, Japan and China

The entry of WTO will definitely enhance the liquidity and influence the moving pattern of international capital flow in China.In this paper,choosing the data from China,United State and Japan,under the hypothesis of real interest rate equilibrium,we examine and compare the sample country's consumption pattern and get the empirical evidence that international capital flow in China is not entirely free,all of which due to the barrier in entering the international market and the insufficient integration.Considering of the fact that China's nominal interest rate,exchange rate and capital market are still under control,vigorous measures such as deepening the domestic financial reform and opening the capital market step by step should be taken so as to enhance the liquidity of international capital flow,to maintain the fast economic growth rate and to improve the general resource allocation efficiency.