The Effect of the Hedge Horizon on Optimal Hedge Size and Effectiveness When Prices are Cointegrated |
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| Authors: | Ted Juhl Ira G Kawaller Paul D Koch |
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| Institution: | 1. Ted Juhl is at the Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas.;2. Ira G. Kawaller is at the Kawaller & Co., 162 State Street, Brooklyn, New York.;3. Paul D. Koch is at the School of Business, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas. |
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| Abstract: | This study compares two alternative regression specifications for sizing hedge positions and measuring hedge effectiveness: a simple regression on price changes and an error correction model (ECM). We show that, when the prices of the hedged item and the hedging instrument are cointegrated, both specifications yield similar results which depend on the hedge horizon (i.e., the time frame for measuring price changes). In particular, the estimated hedge ratio and regression R2 will both be small when price changes are measured over short intervals, but as the hedge horizon is lengthened both measures will converge toward one. These results imply that, when prices are cointegrated, a longer hedge horizon will yield an optimal hedge ratio closer to one, while at the same time enhancing the ability to qualify for hedge accounting. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:837–876, 2012 |
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