影子银行发展、金融结构演进与系统性金融风险——基于1997—2017年全球系统性银行危机的分析

改革开放以来,在传统的以银行为主导的金融结构基础上,我国金融市场不断发展繁荣,影子银行体系也在不断演进.金融结构的发展变化对金融稳定的影响引起了政策制定者和学术界的关注.本文从影子银行发展切入,在"银行主导型"与"市场主导型"金融结构的基础上提出对金融结构的三分法分析框架,以及分析金融结构的市场化导向和影子化导向两大方向,利用1997—2017年41个国家和地区的面板数据,运用面板logit模型分析了金融结构演进与系统性银行危机之间的关系.实证分析结果显示:(1)金融结构市场化导向与系统性银行危机之间存在显著负相关关系.(2)影子银行规模与系统性银行危机之间存在显著正相关关系.(3)金融业自由度显著影响系统性银行危机的发生概率.鉴此,本文提出了坚持金融体系市场化改革方向,加强影子银行体系监管和适度推进金融开放等政策建议.

Shadow Banking,Financial Structure and Systemic Financial Risk:Based on the Analysis of Global Systemic Banking Crisis in 1997-2017

On the basis of the traditional bank-dominated financial structure, China’s financial market has been developing and the shadow banking system has also been evolving since the reform and opening up. Based on the development of shadow banking, this paper proposes a trichotomy analysis framework for analyzing financial structure and proposes a market-oriented and non-bank-oriented analysis of financial structure. We analyses the relationship between financial structure evolution and systemic banking crisis using the panel data of 41 countries and regions from 1997 to 2017 with the panel logit model. The results show that(1) there is a significant negative correlation between financial structure market orientation and systemic banking crisis.(2) There is a significant positive correlation between the scale of non-bank credit intermediaries and the systemic banking crisis.(3) The degree of freedoms of the financial industry significantly affects the probability of a systemic banking crisis. Thus, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as continuing to pursue market-oriented reform of the financial system, strengthening the supervision of the shadow banking system and moderately promoting the financial opening.