银行业结构对产业结构升级的影响研究——基于最优金融结构理论与门槛模型的分析

基于“最优金融结构”理论,利用我国20042017年31个省区市的省级非平衡面板数据,实证检验了银行结构对产业结构升级的影响。结果表明:中小银行占比的增加对我国产业结构升级具有显著促进作用,且该作用在东中西部地区存在明显差异,东部地区中小银行占比增加对产业结构升级的影响并不显著,而中西部地区则具有显著的促进作用。在此基础上,运用面板门槛模型对区域差异性的影响因素进行分析,研究发现,在外商投资水平、财政收入水平、市场化水平、自然资源水平以及人力资源水平因素的不同门槛值区间内,中小银行占比增加对产业结构升级的影响具有程度和方向上的显著差异。

A Study on the Influence of Banking Structure on Upgrading of Industrial Structure: Based on Optimal Financial Structure Theory and the Threshold Model

Based on the theory of“Optimal Financial Structure”,this paper empirically tests the influ-ence of banking structure on the upgrading of industrial structure by using provincial non-equilibrium panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2017.The results show that:the increase of the pro-portion of small and medium-sized banks has a significant effect on the upgrading of industrial struc-ture in China,and there are obvious differences in different regions.The increase of the proportion of small and medium-sized banks in the eastern region has no significant impact on the upgrading of in-dustrial structure,while the central and western regions have a significant role in promoting the upgrad-ing of industrial structure.On this basis,the panel threshold model is used to analyze the influencing factors of regional differences.It is found that there are significant differences in the degree and direc-tion of the impact of the increase of the proportion of small and medium-sized banks on the upgrading of industrial structure in the different threshold ranges of foreign investment level,fiscal income level,marketization level,natural resource level and human resource level.