Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities |
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Authors: | George Burt [Author Vitae] |
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Affiliation: | Room 2.15, Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, Department of Management, University of Strathclyde Business School, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0QU, Scotland, UK |
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Abstract: | The scenario literature has limited discussion on the process of identifying the systemic conditions that could create disruption and/or discontinuity. This paper focuses on the integration of Christensen's theory of disruption and system analysis with the scenario methodology to develop a framework that provides an understanding of the underlying systemic conditions that create disruption and/or discontinuity. The framework is developed from a recent scenario case study to show the process of integrating these three theories and approaches. The case study reveals the systemic conditions inherent in the UK energy industry and how these conditions may portend discontinuity. |
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Keywords: | Scenarios Disruption Discontinuity Predetermined elements Pierre Wack Clayton Christensen System-in-use System analysis Systemic lock-in Resource dependency |
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