基于ARIMA模型的风电功率预测

风电功率的随机波动被认为是对电网带来不利影响的主要因素。研究风电功率的波动特性,对改善风电预测精度与克服风电接入对电网的不利影响都有重要意义。本文通过对30天的风电数据加总,求得15min级的风电功率数据,提出了基于ARIMA模型的风电功率的预测模型。通过对数据进行单步预测取得较好的预测结果,说明ARIMA(1,1,1)模型能够较好的拟合原始数据。给风电功率的预测提供了新的思路。

The Wind Power Prediction Based on ARIMA Model

The random fluctuations of wind power are ragarded as the main factor of the adverse effect to the grid. That we study the fluctuation characteristics of wind power is attatch much importance to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power and to overcome the adverse effect of wind power on the grid. This article uses the 30 days summation of the wind power in order to get the 15min level wind power data, and get the ARIMA model of wind power prediction. We get the better result by using the one-step prediction and we get out of the conclusion that ARIMA（1,1,1）model can better fit the original data. This article draws a new concept of the prediction of the wind power.