The Algerian Retrenchment System: A Financial and Economic Evaluation

The government of Algeria has adopted a new retrenchment systemto facilitate labor shedding in a public sector characterizedby redundant workers and in an environment of already high unemployment.This article assesses the financial viability of the retrenchmentsystem and the inherent welfare costs and benefits associatedwith layoffs. A Financial flows model tracks the UnemploymentInsurance Fund's revenue and expenditure flows during the projectedfive-year adjustment period. It finds that even in the presenceof massive retrenchment (21 percent of formal sector employment),the fund accumulates reserves equivalent to nearly 2 percentof gross domestic product. Because many displaced workers willend up in the informal sector, the resulting productivity gainsor losses depend crucially on the initial level of productivityin the public sector. At the same time, retrenchment entailsunambiguous benefits by reducing subsidies to state-owned enterprises,thereby generating efficiency gains. Considering these two effectstogether, the welfare model estimates that retrenching 13 percentof the formal sector will generate annual net welfare gainsranging from costs of $358 million to gains of $774 million.