基于地理探测器的城市建设用地规模时空差异及影响因素分析

研究目的:分析城市建设用地规模时空差异及其影响因素,为制定区域差别化的城市建设用地供应政策提供决策参考。研究方法:在分析345个城市建设用地规模时空变化的基础上,运用地理探测器识别城市建设用地规模扩张的影响因素及其交互作用。研究结果:(1)中国城市建设用地面积虽然持续增长,但增速逐渐放缓;(2)城市建设用地扩张存在较大空间差异,扩张规模按东部、西部、中部、东北地区逐渐递减,扩张速度按西部、中部、东部、东北地区逐渐递减;(3)全国城市建设用地扩张主要受投资驱动的影响,东部地区和东北地区由人口驱动转为产业驱动,中部地区由人口驱动转为投资驱动,西部地区城市建设用地扩张一直受投资驱动较为明显;(4)影响因子两两之间均为增强关系,包括双因子增强和非线性增强,2000年,投资水平、产业结构及学校数量交互作用极强,而到2015年,实际利用外资与其他因子的交互性明显增强。研究结论:中国城市建设用地扩张受产业、投资和人口共同驱动,但驱动力大小存在较大空间差异。应针对不同区域的主要驱动因素实施差别化管理,缓解城市建设用地规模扩张。

Spatio-Temporal Disparity of Urban Construction Land and Its Impact Factors in China based on Geodetector

The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatio-temporal disparity of urban construction land and its impact factors, and to provide a reference for regional differentiated urban land supply policies. The method of Geodetetor was used to identify the impact factors and their interactions. The results show that: 1) the scale of urban construction land in China continues to expand, while the growth rate shows a downward trend. It implies that the urban construction land expansion in China is under certain control. 2) There is a great disparity of urban expansion in China. The scales of expansion are: Eastern>Western>Central>Northeastern region. The expansion rates are: Western>Central>Eastern>Northeastern region. 3) The urban construction land expansion in the whole country is driven by the investment. The drivers of urban construction land expansion in the Eastern and Northeastern regions shifted from population to industry; the driver of central region shifted from population to investment; the western region has been driven by investment significantly. 4) The impact factors are enhanced by each other, including two-factor enhancement and non-linear enhancement. In 2000, the level of investment, industrial structure and the number of schools strongly interacted with each other. By 2015, the interaction between the actual utilization of foreign investment and other factors has been significantly enhanced. In conclusion, the urban construction land expansion in China is mainly driven by industry, investment and population. However, there is an obvious disparity in the level of effects. Accordingly, the differentiated land management should be enhanced to mitigate the disorder expansion of cities.