长三角城市土地稀缺与土地利用效率的交互影响

研究目的:揭示长三角地区城市土地利用效率与土地稀缺的交互影响。研究方法:数据包络分析法(DEA)、方向性环境距离函数和经济计量分析方法。研究结果:(1)研究时段内,长三角地区城市土地利用效率对土地稀缺具有负向冲击累积作用,但土地利用效率对土地稀缺的预测方差贡献度较小,表明城市土地利用效率提升尚未明显缓解土地稀缺;(2)长三角地区城市土地稀缺对考虑非期望产出的土地利用效率带来长期显著负向冲击,土地稀缺对土地利用效率的预测方差贡献度超过50%,表明城市土地稀缺增加对于考虑非期望产出的土地利用效率具有负向作用,但土地稀缺对传统土地利用效率的影响并不明显。研究结论:长三角地区城市土地稀缺的缓解,既要强化建设用地面积管控,提高土地利用强度,盘活闲置用地,也要重视土地利用过程中环境污染"副产品"的管制。

The Interactive Effect between Urban Land Scarcity and Land Use Efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta, China

The purpose of this study is to reveal the interaction between urban land use efficiency and land scarcity in the Yangtze River Delta, China. The methods of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), directional distance function and econometric analysis are employed. The results indicate that, during the study period (2003-2015), 1)urban land use efficiency had an accumulated negative impulse to land scarcity in the Yangtze River Delta, China; however, the contribution from variance decomposition of predictions of land use efficiency to land scarcity was small, demonstrating that the increasing of urban land use efficiency did not significantly reduce land scarcity in the study area; 2)urban land scarcity had a long-term negative impulse to land use efficiency considering unexpected output, and the contribution from variance decomposition of predictions of land scarcity to land use efficiency was more than 50%, showing that urban land scarcity exerted a negative influence on land use efficiency considering unexpected output; by contrast, urban land scarcity did not exert an apparent influence on traditional land use efficiency (without considering unexpected output). In conclusion, to reduce urban land scarcity in the Yangtze River Delta, China, it is necessary not only to regulate urban construction land area, to improve land use intensity and to redevelop idle land, but also to pay more attention to controlling the side effects of pollution in land use.