| 碳中和目标下基于GA-BP神经网络的碳交易定价模型及其模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马明娟,李强,殷文琦,宗鑫,周文瑞.碳中和目标下基于GA-BP神经网络的碳交易定价模型及其模拟研究[J].生态经济(学术版),2022(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马明娟 李强 殷文琦 宗鑫 周文瑞 |
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| 作者单位： | 北方民族大学经济学院;国家民委人文社会科学重点研究基地民族地区相对贫困治理研究中心;宁夏经济改革与发展研究中心;北方民族大学计算机科学与工程学院;宁夏环境科学研究院（有限责任公司） |
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| 基金项目： | 宁夏自然科学基金项目“从碳交易到生态补偿:民族地区扶贫机制优化与多智能体仿真分析——以宁夏为例”(2020AAC03227);国家社会科学基金项目“碳中和目标下黄河上游民族地区生态保护与高质量发展研究”(21XMZ051);国家自然科学基金项目“多设备支持的协同工作环境中感知模型的研究与应用”(61962002);国家自然科学基金项目“网络协同工作环境中小组协作痕迹的建模和开发利用”(61402017)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 系统剖析了欧盟碳排放交易体系,在厘清GA-BP神经网络原理的基础上构建了基于GA-BP神经网络的碳交易定价模型,用以刻画碳交易价格的影响因素,并结合情景设置、数值模拟不同情景下不同因素对碳交易价格的作用机理。研究结果表明GA-BP神经网络对于碳交易价格模拟具有可靠性,在不同经济发展水平和能源结构情景下碳交易价格变化较大,构建区域碳排放交易体系不仅能促进温室气体减排,还能优化能源结构,其关键在于形成与碳排放交易体系相适应、相配套的体制机制,营造契合碳中和目标的政策环境。论文旨在为我国碳交易市场运行机制优化提供理论参考,为我国碳中和与高质量发展目标的实现提供有益增补。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳中和 碳交易定价模型 欧盟碳排放交易体系 GA-BP神经网络 高质量发展 |
The Study of Carbon Trading Pricing Model Based on GA-BP Neural Network and Its Simulation Under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality |
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| MA Mingjuan,LI Qiang,YIN Wenqi,ZONG Xin,ZHOU Wenrui.The Study of Carbon Trading Pricing Model Based on GA-BP Neural Network and Its Simulation Under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality[J].Ecological Economy,2022(3). |
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| Authors: | MA Mingjuan LI Qiang YIN Wenqi ZONG Xin ZHOU Wenrui |
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| Institution: | (School of Economics,North Minzu University,Yinchuan Ningxia 750021,China;Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences Research Center for the Governance of Relative Poverty in Ethnic Regions,Yinchuan Ningxia 750021,China;Ningxia Economic Development Research Center,Yinchuan Ningxia 750021,China;School of Computer Science and Engineering,North Minzu University,Yinchuan Ningxia 750021,China;Ningxia Research Academy of Environmental Sciences(Limited Liability Company),Yinchuan Ningxia 750000,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper systematically analyzes the EU’s carbon emissions trading system,and builds carbon trading pricing model based on GA-BP neural network,which is used to characterize the influencing factors of carbon trading prices.And combined with scenario settings,the effect mechanism of different factors on carbon trading prices under different scenarios is numerically simulated.The research results show that the GA-BP neural network is reliable for carbon trading price simulation,and carbon trading prices vary greatly under different economic development levels and energy structure scenarios.The establishment of a regional carbon emission trading system can not only promote greenhouse gas emission reduction,but also optimize the energy structure.The key is to form a system and mechanism that is compatible with the carbon emission trading system and create a policy environment that meets the goal of carbon neutrality.This article aims to provide a theoretical reference for the operating mechanism optimization of China’s carbon trading market,and to provide beneficial supplements to the realization of carbon neutrality and high-quality development goals in China. |
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| Keywords: | carbon neutrality carbon trade pricing model EU Carbon emissions trading system GA-BP neural networks high-quality development |
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