中国城市碳效率时空演变格局及优化研究

在碳效率视角下，考虑非期望产出采用超效率SBM模型对2006—2016年中国城市碳效率进行测定；构建空间马尔科夫链，从城市尺度研究了中国碳效率的时空演变特征和趋势；采用机器学习模型，对不同类型碳效率类型内碳排放特征与驱动因素进行分析。研究结果表明：中国城市碳效率呈梯度上升趋势，但整体碳效率仍处于中下水平，提升潜力巨大；城市碳效率水平具有稳定性，低效率类型城市存在“俱乐部收敛”现象，高效率类型城市虹吸效应大于集聚效应。最后基于上述研究给出低碳可持续发展建议。

Research on the Temporal and Spatial Evolution Pattern of Carbon Efficiency in Chinese Cities and Optimization

From the perspective of carbon efficiency,the super-efficiency SBM model is used to measure the carbon efficiency of Chinese cities from 2006 to 2016 in consideration of undesired output.By constructing a spatial Markov chain,the paper studies the characteristics and trends of the temporal and spatial evolution of China’s carbon efficiency from the urban scale.And the machine learning model is used to analyze the carbon emission characteristics and driving factors of different types of carbon efficiency types.The research results show that the carbon efficiency of Chinese cities is showing a gradual upward trend,but the overall carbon efficiency is still at a low-medium level,with huge potential for improvement.The level of urban carbon efficiency is stable,and there is a phenomenon of“club convergence”in lowefficiency cities.The siphon effect of high-efficiency cities is greater than the agglomeration effect.According to the difference in carbon efficiency,the factors affecting urban carbon emissions under different efficiency types have been studied.Finally,recommendations for low-carbon sustainable development are given based on the above research.