新兴经济体国家城镇化发展对碳排放影响的比较研究

新兴经济体十六国是重要的发展集团，由“金砖五国”和“新钻十一国”组成，高效低碳的城镇化是其进一步提升在全球经济发展中增量贡献的动力保障。借助EKC模型和STIRPAT模型，分别研究这两个国家集团城镇化发展与碳排放量之间的关系以及城镇化对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：在二者的关系方面，新兴经济体国家的城镇化水平与碳排放量呈现出微弱的倒“U”型关系，其中，“金砖五国”已经跨过倒“U”型曲线的拐点，而“新钻十一国”则处于拐点前期；在城镇化对碳排放的影响方面，城镇化发展对“新钻十一国”碳排放量的影响大于“金砖五国”；城镇化水平越高的国家，碳排放量越大，但随着工业化水平的提升和产业结构的优化升级，碳排放量逐步降低。

A Comparative Study of the Impact of Urbanization on Carbon Emissions in Emerging Economies

Sixteen countries of emerging economies are important development groups,which are composed of the BRICS and the“newly drilled eleven countries”.High-quality low-carbon urbanization is an important driving force for emerging economies to enhance their incremental contribution to global economic development.With the help of EKC model and STIRPAT model,this paper studies the relationship between urbanization development and carbon emissions of these two national groups,and the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions.The results show that:in terms of the relationship between them,the urbanization level of emerging economies and carbon emissions show a weak inverted“U”-shaped relationship;Among them,“BRICS”has crossed the inflection point of the inverted“U”-shaped curve,while“newly drilled eleven countries”is in the early stage of inflection point;In terms of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions,the impact of urbanization development on the carbon emissions of the“newly drilled eleven countries”is greater than that of the“BRICS”;The higher the urbanization level,the greater the carbon emissions,but with the improvement of industrialization level and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,the carbon emissions gradually decrease.