公交实时信息化服务对乘客出行行为意向影响

为了解城市公交信息化服务对公交乘客出行方式转移的影响,以上海市杨浦区为例,进行关于公交信息化服务下乘客出行方式转移的调查,获取个人属性、公交出行经历、公交出行评价、出行方式转移意向以及公交信息服务需求等信息。从公交信息使用者角度,重点关注公交信息化服务对乘客出行方式转移的影响,分别构建信息化服务情境下(公交到站时间与计划出发时间相差过大和车辆未在提示的时间内到达)的公交出行方式转移二项logit模型。模型结果表明:乘客平均候车时间、是否经常使用公交到站服务、是否有道路拥挤车辆未按时进站等原因而产生出行延误的经历、公交信息准确性评价与是否有必要提示同公交线路连续班次的到站时间等因素对不同情景下的乘客出行方式转移具有显著影响。

Influence of Real-time Public Transport Information Service on Passenger Travel Behavior and Intention

In order to understand the impact of urban public transport information service on the change of passenger travel modes,and taking Yangpu District,Shanghai as an example,we had an investigation in this subject by acquiring and analyzing such information as individual attribute,public transport travel history,passenger comment,intention to change travel mode,and demand for public transport information service,etc.From the perspective of a public transport information user,focusing on how public transport information service factored in the change of passenger travel mode,we constructed the binomial logit model for the change of travel mode respectively under the two information service scenarios where bus arrival deviated far from the planned departure time and where the bus failed to arrive on time indicated.The model result showed that average passenger waiting time,frequent use of bus arrival service,past experience of delayed bus arrival caused by traffic congestion,accuracy of public transport information,and whether forecasting of the successive arrival of buses on the same line is deemed necessary or not,etc.,had significant impact on the change of passenger travel mode under both scenarios.