改革开放以来中国农产品对外贸易比较优势动态研究——基于NRCA方法的分析

本文采用NRCA index研究了1978～2010年中国农产品比较优势分布及变动,并通过回归分析、面板单位根检验等探讨了其稳定性。研究发现:(1)总体上,中国仅食品和活动物类农产品具有比较优势;按产品属性来看,水产品、园艺产品和非食用畜产品是比较优势产品;按品种细分,优势品种数和劣势品种数各年相差不大,但具体分布不同。(2)中国农产品整体比较优势的稳定周期约为6年,主要农产品大类的比较优势明显具有阶段性。(3)大部分农产品比较优势变动是不平稳的,仅不到1/4的农产品具有平稳特征。本文认为:对改革开放以来中国农产品比较优势阶段性及稳定性背后的影响因素与政策含义的揭示与分析是未来研究的一个重点。

Agricultural Products Trade since the Reform and Opening Up:An Analysis based on the Method of NRCA

Employing NRCA index,this paper carried out a comprehensive study on the distribution and transformation of China′s agricultural products CA from 1978 to 2010.In addition,it analyzed its stability by means of regression analysis,panel unit root test.The major findings are: ①the Food and Live Animals Chiefly for Food is the only CA product.According to product attributes,Aquatic Products,Horticultural Products and Inedible Animal Products are the CA products.According to variety subdivision,the difference in the number of varieties between advantages and disadvantages is small,but their distribution is different;②the stability cycle of China′s agricultural overall CA is about 6 years,and the CA stage of main agricultural products categories is obvious;③the CA of most agricultural products is unstable,fewer than a quarter of agricultural products keep stationary feature.In its opinion,a research on the influence factors and policy implications underling the stage and stability of CA on China′s agricultural products will be a key project.