中国机电产品出口增长的二元边际

本文利用2003～2009年中国机电产品HS-6位出口数据及Hummels和Klenow(2005)的二元分解方法客观分析了中国机电产品出口的二元边际,认为中国对主要贸易伙伴的出口增长主要是来自集约边际的贡献。进一步将集约边际分解发现,出口增长实质来源于数量扩张,价格的贡献微弱,说明机电产品"以量取胜"的模式尚未根本改变。另外,以实证分析方法考察了不同因素对二元边际的影响机制,研究结果显示,各因素对二元边际的作用方向基本一致,但对两种边际影响最为显著的因素是不同的,这表明政策的制定也应当有不同的倾向性。

The Dual Margin of Mechanical and Electrical Products Export Growth in China

Drawing on decomposition methodology of Hummels and Klenow(2005),this paper uses HS-6 export data to describe dual margin of mechanical and electrical products export in China.It thinks that China′s export growth on main trade partners mainly depends on the intensive margin.By decomposing intensive margin deeply,we find that export growth substantially comes from quantity expansion,the contribution of price is tiny,so it turns out that China′s pattern of mechanical and electrical products export growth is still extensive.This paper also gives empirical analysis on influence mechanism of different factors on the dual margin.The results tell that the influencing direction of factors is basically the same,but the most remarkable factor is different for the dual margin,which suggests that the policy making should have different tendentiousness.