| 河北省粮食产量预测新法探析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张彩霞,吴忠伟. 河北省粮食产量预测新法探析[J]. 经济与管理, 2008, 22(12) |
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| 作者姓名： | 张彩霞 吴忠伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北经贸大学,数学与统计学学院,河北,石家庄,050061 |
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| 摘 要： | 粮食安全对中国来说是一个重大的战略问题,是历届政府的工作重点。目前在粮食产量预测上,理论界和实践中均采用预测精度不高的单一方法,这在一定程度上影响了粮食工作的正常开展。为了提高预算精度,应采用回归和马尔可夫联合模型的方法。实践证明:采用此联合模型的方法,其预测值尤为符合实际产量。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食产量 回归预测 马尔可夫过程模型 联合预测模型 |
On the New Forecast Method of Food Output of Hebei Province |
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| Zhang Caixia,Wu Zhangwei. On the New Forecast Method of Food Output of Hebei Province[J]. Economy and Management, 2008, 22(12) |
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| Authors: | Zhang Caixia Wu Zhangwei |
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| Affiliation: | Zhang Caixia; Wu Zhangwei(School of Maths and Statistics; Hebei University of Economics and Business; Shijiazhuang 050061; China); |
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| Abstract: | The food security is an important strategy issue to China and the work emphasis of all the previous government.Now in the grain forecasting,the theory circles and the practice all adopt the unitary method that low precision,which affect the normal operation of the grain job to some extent.To improve the forecast precision,we should adopt the united model of regression and Markov model.The practices show that the foecasting value accords with the accual output value by using the united model. |
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| Keywords: | grain output regression forecast Markov process model combined forecast model |
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