政府规模与宏观经济稳定性 ——来自新兴市场经济的证据和RBC模型的分析

本文研究的核心是政府支出和收入规模对于宏观经济稳定性的影响。对新兴市场国家的实证分析表明，政府消费规模对产出具有非稳定效应，一般性政府支出规模和产出波动率的负向关系可能并不存在。本文首先构建了包含累进型税收机制和需求扰动型政府支出的实际经济周期模型（RBC），模型拟合出政府支出规模的非稳定效应和税收的稳定效应。当将政府支出视为生产性支出后，支出规模的稳定效应体现出来，虽然在规模进一步扩大后稳定效应会消失。

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY ——Evidence from Emerging Markets and Analysis of RBC

This paper studies the influence of government spending and revenue scale on the macroeconomic stability. Empirical evidence about emerging markets shows that the size of government consumption has a destabilizing impact on the output volatility, while the relationship between general government expenditure size and output volatility is not clear. The real business cycle model is constructed which contains a progressive type of taxes system and government spending disturbance. The model fits the destabilizing effect of government spending size as well as stabilizing effect of tax system. If government spending is regarded as productive expenditure, the stabilizing effect of government spending size will take up, although the stabilizing effect will disappears if government spending size expands further.