| 基于三角模糊和故障树理论的西气东输管道第三方破坏风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 史爽,郭磊,徐涛龙,赵新好. 基于三角模糊和故障树理论的西气东输管道第三方破坏风险分析[J]. 石油工业技术监督, 2011, 27(2): 1-5 |
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| 作者姓名： | 史爽 郭磊 徐涛龙 赵新好 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南石油大学石油工程学院,四川,成都,610500 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国石油西气东输管道公司项目(XQSGL01423); 国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK02B01)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据第三方施工对管道造成破坏的影响因素,建立故障树。针对基本事件发生概率不确定的情况下,引入三角模糊理论,将基本事件的发生概率描述为模糊数,采用正态的R-L模糊数为参照函数,修正了各基本事件的发生概率,通过模糊运算规则得出第三方施工对管道破坏概率的区间值。应用中值法确定各底事件的模糊重要度,并对此进行排序,确定主要影响因素,最后提出相应的措施以减少第三方施工对管道的破坏。
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| 关 键 词： | 三角模糊 故障树 第三方施工 风险分析 西气东输 |
The Risk Analysis on the Third Party Damage to West-to-East Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Based on the Theory of Triangle Fuzzy and Fault Tree |
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| Shi Shuang,Guo Lei,Xu Taolong,et al. The Risk Analysis on the Third Party Damage to West-to-East Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Based on the Theory of Triangle Fuzzy and Fault Tree[J]. Technology Supervision In Petroleum Industry, 2011, 27(2): 1-5 |
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| Authors: | Shi Shuang Guo Lei Xu Taolong et al |
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| Affiliation: | Shi Shuang,Guo Lei,Xu Taolong,et al |
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| Abstract: | The fault tree is built up based on the influencing factors of third party construction damage to natural gas pipeline.With the uncertainty of the occurrence probability of basic events,the triangle fuzzy theory is introduced into the research.The probability of basic events is described as the fuzzy number while the positive R-L fuzzy number is used as the reference function,and then the occurrence probability of basic events has been modified.Meanwhile,the interval value of the probability of third party ... |
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| Keywords: | triangle fuzzy fault tree the third party construction risk analysis west-to-east natural gas transmission |
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