Congestion analysis of waterborne, containerized imports from Asia to the United States

A queuing model is introduced for estimating container flow times through port terminals as a function of infrastructure, staffing, and import volume. The model is statistically calibrated on industry data. Flow-time estimates of the model are aggregated with estimates from models previously developed for rail networks to develop estimates of the total container flow times from West Coast ports to inland distribution centers. Integrated with a supply-chain optimization model, the queuing formulas are used to predict import flows by port and landside channel in scenarios of total import growth, varying all-water rates, and a higher import share for nation-wide importers.