中国外贸依存度的测度及与经济大国的比较

通过结合非竞争型投入产出表,修正沈利生(2003)测算外贸依存度的"总活动法",用修正的"总活动法"测算总外贸依存度,可以从市场的角度定义出口依存度、国民经济进口依存度、生产进口依存度、消费进出口依存度和总投资进口依存度并给出计算公式。结果表明:对15个经济大国的外贸依存度按照由高到低排序,中国的总外贸依存度排序第10,出口依存度排序第7,进口依存度排序第10;中国的生产进口依存度高于总投资进口依存度,后者高于消费进口依存度,中国是消费进口依存度最低的国家。产品竞争力、跨国企业全球资源配置、第三产业发展、消费市场发展等多种因素的共同作用将决定中国外贸依存度的变化。各国GDP的高低与外贸依存度的高低没有必然联系。

Measurement of China's Dependence on Foreign Trade and Comparison with Other Economic Powers

With the help of non-competitive input-out table,this article rectify the "Total activities" by Sheng Lisheng (2003).The revised "Total activities" then measure foreign trade dependence.The export dependence,import dependence of national economy,production import dependence,consumption export dependence and import dependence of total investment are defined from the market perspective.The results show that of the 15 economic powers in the world,China ranks 10th in foreign trade dependence,7th in export dependence,and 10th in import dependence.China's production import dependence is higher than the total investment import dependence,which is higher than consumption import dependence.China has thelowest consumption import dependence.The change of China's foreign trade dependence is determined by the competitive edge of products,resource allocation by multinationals around the world,development tertiary industry,growth of consumption market.There is no direct linkage between GDP and foreign trade dependence.