中国城镇生活能源消费:影响因素分解及空间差异分析

基于对数平均迪氏分解法（LMDI）从全国和省际层面将城镇生活能源消费分解为能源结构效应、生活能源强度效应、消费倾向效应、收入效应和人口规模效应，对各效应逐年和累积效应贡献度以及区域间的空间差异进行分析。结果显示：收入、生活能源强度、人口规模均促进城镇能耗增长，其中收入的影响效应最为显著，而生活能源消费结构与居民消费倾向的变化抑制了生活能耗增长；各地区收入、人口规模、生活能源强度累积效应均为正值，而生活能源消费结构、居民消费倾向累积效应有正有负，呈现出明显的空间差异。研究结果对遏制中国城镇生活能耗增长、实现碳减排具有重要意义。

Factor Decomposition and Spatial Differences of Chinese Urban Household Energy Consumption

Based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI)method,this paper explored five effects of the urban household energy consumption from the energy consumption structure,household energy intensity,consumption tendency,the per capita disposable income and the population size,at national and provincial level,and the spatial difference of each effect and the contribution degree were also analyzed.The results show that,the growth of the per capita disposable income,household energy intensity and the population size could promote the growth of urban household energy consumption at national level,and the per capita disposable income is the decisive factor,while the energy consumption structure and consumption tendency inhibit the growth.The cumulative effect of the per capita disposable income,household energy intensity and the population size of samples are positive,and some cumulative effect of the energy consumption structure and consumption tendency of samples are positive,while others are negative.The results are significant for reducing energy consumption and achieving carbon emission reduction.